Abstract

This dissertation brings together three essays in labor and macroeconomics on worker behavior, managerial human capital, and inflation expectations. The first chapter, ``Worker Learning and Management,'' studies how managers influence the development of future managers. Using German linked employer-employee data, I show that workers exposed to higher-quality managers earn persistently higher wages after they themselves enter management, even after switching firms, while also being less likely to transition immediately into management. I interpret these patterns through a coaching channel that builds portable managerial skill and quantify its implications in a model with endogenous coaching, worker-to-manager transitions, and on-the-job search. The second chapter, ``Where Are the Workers? From Great Resignation to Quiet Quitting,'' studies the post-pandemic decline in labor supply in the United States. I decompose changes in aggregate hours worked into extensive and intensive margins and show that the shortfall in labor input after 2019 reflects not only lower employment, but also a substantial reduction in hours among workers who remained employed. The results imply that conventional measures centered on unemployment or labor force participation alone understate the degree of labor-market adjustment during the recovery. The third chapter, ``Measuring Inflation Expectations from Federal Reserve Text,'' studies whether Federal Reserve communications contain information about inflation beyond standard numerical indicators. Using Beige Book text and related Federal Reserve materials, I construct text-based measures of inflation pressure and evaluate their ability to track realized inflation and expectations. The results show that Federal Reserve language contains useful directional information, while also highlighting the limits of translating qualitative narratives into stable quantitative forecasts. Taken together, these essays show how labor-market dynamics, managerial skill formation, and macroeconomic information interact to shape aggregate outcomes.

Committee Chair

Yongseok Shin

Committee Members

Francisco Buera; Philipp Grübener; Rodolfo Manuelli; Victoria Gregory

Degree

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Author's Department

Economics

Author's School

Graduate School of Arts and Sciences

Document Type

Dissertation

Date of Award

4-22-2026

Language

English (en)

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Available for download on Friday, April 21, 2028

Included in

Economics Commons

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